The State of Travel Recovery

Buckle up because we’re taking a data deep dive into the travel industry’s more-than-welcome recovery.

Showing signs in early 2021

Signs of recovery began just after the start of the new year, when the Transportation Security Administration screened more than 1 million passengers for three days in a row: Jan. 2, 3 and 4. That metric didn’t surpass 1 million again until mid-February, but that first positive blip was a hopeful glimpse into what was to come.

Then we encountered a bit of a challenge. On Jan. 26, a new rule from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the potential to sideline travel went into effect: All air passengers entering the U.S. were required to get a COVID-19 test within three days before their flight to the U.S. and provide documentation to the airline they’re flying with of either a negative result for COVID-19 or proof that they’ve recovered from COVID-19. It caused quite a stir amongst travel advisors, with many questions and unfortunately, cancellations from their clients.

Hotels and resorts in Mexico and the Caribbean quickly mobilized to counteract the potential worry by offering on-site COVID-19 testing to guests, often at no cost, along with extended stay accommodations if a guest did test positive and needed to quarantine before heading back to the U.S. AMResorts, Iberostar Hotels & Resorts, Sandos Hotels & Resorts, La Colección by Fiesta Americana, RIU Hotels & Resorts and Sandals Resorts are just a few of the resort brands that sprang into action for their guests to offer on-site testing. Apple Leisure Group Vacations even added a Hotel Amenities filter and hotel-specific messaging to its products on VAX to make it easy for travel advisors to find properties that offered on-site COVID-19 testing.

Soon after the CDC’s rule was in effect, TSA then offered another glimpse into the industry’s recovery in late February by announcing that it was seeking to hire more than 6,000 airport security screening officers by summer 2021 in anticipation of a busy summer season. And then more exciting news came from TSA in mid-March: 1.36 million passengers were screened at airports around the U.S. on Friday, March 12, 2021, the most passengers screened in one day since March 15, 2020. On the same day in 2020, TSA screened 1.79 million passengers, which was 31% more than in 2021, but still a promising sign for travel.

VAX VacationAccess saw its own signs of recovery. Traffic to the VAX website in January 2021 grew 72% over December 2020. The first month of the year is generally the busiest on VAX, but seeing such a significant increase in site traffic was incredibly hopeful. February did not disappoint, with a 7% increase in site traffic over January, followed by a blowout in March with an 82% increase over February. The VAX site was buzzing.

In early March, VAX conducted an on-site poll asking travel advisors how the new CDC testing rule was impacting their business. The results were mixed: 40% said they had more canceled or postponed bookings, 34% said their clients felt intimidated or less confident traveling, 19% said their clients actually felt safer with the extra precautions and surprisingly, 4% said they had fewer canceled or postponed bookings.

VAX followed up with another poll, this time asking travel advisors what their biggest obstacle was in navigating the travel industry in 2021. The poll didn’t include an option to choose the CDC testing rule, in order to understand the obstacles outside of that one, and 48% of respondents said they were struggling the most with making sure their clients felt safe and confident to travel.

Throughout all of this, the COVID-19 vaccination effort was well underway in the U.S. By March 15, 119 million COVID-19 vaccine doses had been administered and 42 million people in the U.S. were fully vaccinated.

So naturally, VAX turned to travel advisors to see how the increased vaccine rollout was affecting their business. The results were overwhelmingly positive, with 81% saying they saw an increase in bookings and clients calls and only 11% saying they were not seeing an increase.

A steady April

Friday, April 2, brought exciting news. The CDC announced that people who were fully vaccinated with an FDA-authorized vaccine could travel safely within the U.S. and U.S. territories.

This was big news.

At the same time, data on the feelings of safety amongst travelers gathered by Destination Analysts, a tourism market research firm, showed that Americans were starting to consider travel to be safe. A Destination Analyst survey of American travelers conducted from April 2-4, 2021, found that 39% of travelers still considered travel activities unsafe and 37% were still avoiding travel in general. That may still seem kind of low, but the same survey conducted April 3-5, 2020, found that 70% considered travel activities unsafe and 81% were still avoiding travel in general. What a difference a year (and few million vaccines) can make.

Prior to this announcement from the CDC, travel advisors were already seeing an increase in their domestic bookings, according to an on-site poll conducted by VAX. Half of travel advisors said their domestic business increased by 50% or more, with 17% saying it had no impact.

The shopping activity on VAX reflected these poll results, with the top five domestic destinations on VAX (Las Vegas, Miami, Orlando, Honolulu and Maui) seeing big growth starting in March.

The top domestic destinations shopped on VAX aligned almost perfectly with the top summer travel destinations Allianz Partners gathered from its 2021 Top 10 Summer Destinations Review.

1. Orlando
2. Maui
3. Honolulu
4. Seattle
5. Anchorage
6. Las Vegas
7. Kauai
8. Big Island
9. Boston
10. Miami

Source: Allianz Partners 2021 Top 10 Summer Destinations Review

At the end of April, even more big news came. In an interview with The New York Times, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, shared that Americans who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 will be able to travel to the European Union once again, as early as summer 2021. Details were to come, but excitement and travel planning were underway as soon as the news hit.

On our way in May

By early May, 87% of Americans were planning to travel in the summer, according to survey data from Destination Analysts. By May 5, the CDC reported that 250 million COVID-19 vaccine doses had been administered in the U.S. and 107 million people were fully vaccinated. The United States Tour Operators Association shared survey results showing that nine out of 10 USTOA active members saw a recent increase in sales and eight out of 10 felt enthusiastic or cautiously optimistic for a complete resumption of business by the end of 2021. “Where can Americans travel now” and “places to travel during COVID” were trending Google searches in the U.S.

In one of the most telltale signs of recovery, TSA screened at least 1 million travelers every day since March 11, 2021. The traveler screenings still hadn’t reached 2019’s numbers but compared to 2020, things were really looking up. Good thing they ramped up their workforce in February.

No one wants to be too optimistic; it would be a shame to make sweeping predictions that never pan out. But the data speaks for itself. Travel is well on its way to recovery.

Originally appeared in the summer 2021 issue of The Compass Magazine.